Friday, May 25, 2012

INDONESIA - BANKING - Indonesia ruling may hurt Malaysian banks' earnings

www.btimes.com.my - KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's top two banks could be dealt a bigger blow than expected if Indonesia limits the maximum stake a single shareholder can own in its banks to below 50 per cent, as news reports from Jakarta suggested. A Reuters report yesterday said Bank Indonesia was set to announce next month a reduction in the single-shareholder threshold from 99 per cent currently to a level below 50 per cent. It quoted unnamed sources with direct knowledge of the plan.

A Bisnis Indonesia report, also quoting sources, said the central bank planned to limit the ownership in banks to 40 per cent for financial institutions, 30 per cent for non-financial institutions and 20 per cent for individuals. (source)


"The latter two limits do not come as a surprise, but the 40 per cent would be lower than market expectation of at least 51 per cent," noted a banking analyst here.

While these news reports remain unconfirmed, any such move would have an impact on CIMB Group Holdings Bhd and Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) given their large ownership in Indonesian banks.

CIMB owns 97.9 per cent of CIMB Niaga, while Maybank owns 97 per cent of Bank Internasional Indonesia (BII).

Analysts said the move would hurt CIMB more than Maybank as it derives a higher proportion of earnings from Indonesia.

Bank Niaga accounts for about 30 per cent of CIMB's pre-tax profit, while BII accounts for less than five per cent of Maybank's earnings.

Still, analysts said the banks were still engaging Indonesian regulators on the matter.

"From what I gather, there seems to be hope that the new regulations may not apply to financial holding companies and that even the rule is somehow implemented, they will be given good time to comply," one told Business Times.

Maybank, when contacted, said it was waiting for an official announcement on the proposed new regulations from the authorities in Indonesia.

"Once more clarity is obtained, we would be better able to articulate our position and the steps we could take moving forward," a spokesperson said.

CIMB declined comment.

Any such move also hurts Singapore bank DBS' plan to buy a 67.4 per cent stake held by Temasek Holdings in Indonesia's Bank Danamon for US$7.2 billion (RM22.6 billion), unless it negotiates an exemption.

"If implemented, we would hope for two issues to soften the blow (to banks) - a timeframe of more than 10 years to pare down shareholdings and the possibility of this ruling not being applied retroactively," said an analyst from Maybank Investment Bank Research.

OSK Research, too, felt that the time given to comply with the shareholding rule is important.

"Indonesia is still a very lucrative banking market, so even if you get a 40 per cent stake, but are given a long enough transition period, it's good enough," it said.

Restriction on bank ownership in the region is not unusual. Malaysia limits foreign ownership of its banks at 30 per cent.

Maybank's shares, which have shed 0.9 per cent so far this year, lagging the broader market's 1.1 per cent gain, closed 7 sen higher to RM8.50 yesterday.

CIMB's shares, which have eased 3.4 per cent this year, added one sen to RM7.19.

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