Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks -
Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries
Summary: As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs)
manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to
assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the
external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the
first Vulnerability Exercise for LICs (VE-LIC) conducted by IMF staff using
this new framework.
The report focuses on the risks of a downturn in global
growth and of further global commodity price shocks, and discusses related
policy challenges. The report is organized as follows: Chapter I reviews recent
macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices
earlier this year. Chapter II assesses current risks and vulnerabilities,
including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price
shocks would affect LICs. Chapter III discusses policy challenges in the face
of these risks and vulnerabilities. (download)
